Need, Rationale & Importance: Microfinance institutions (MFIs) serve as crucial vehicles for financial inclusion, particularly in underbanked and fraud-prone regions. However, challenges related to transparency, trust, governance inefficiencies, and repayment discipline continue to threaten their long-term viability. With the advancement of Blockchain Technology technology—promising decentralization, auditability, and automation—there arises a compelling need to evaluate its systemic impact beyond short-term use, focusing on sustained behavioral and institutional transformation. Originality & Research Gap: While prior studies have largely examined the technical feasibility of Blockchain Technology in financial services, there remains limited empirical evidence on its long-term effects within microfinance. Models that integrate trust mechanisms, behavioral outcomes, and governance evolution—all shaped by technological interventions—in low-resource and digitally fragile environments
Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) have emerged as critical agents of financial inclusion, offering small-scale credit and savings services to underserved populations. However, despite their transformative potential, MFIs continue to grapple with persistent challenge such as fraud, lack of transparency, weak governance, and inconsistent borrower trust that undermine their long-term sustainability and impact. These issues are particularly acute in low-resource environments, where digital illiteracy and institutional fragility further complicate service delivery and accountability.
Block chain Technology: a decentralized, immutable ledger system that promises to revolutionize the way financial transactions are recorded, verified, and enforced. By enabling tamper-proof recordkeeping, automated smart contracts, and real-time auditing, Blockchain Technology offers a compelling solution to many of the structural inefficiencies plaguing traditional microfinance systems. Its potential to build trust, reduce fraud, and enhance institutional governance has sparked growing interest among researchers, practitioners, and policymakers alike also, its long-term effects on borrower behavior and institutional transformation remain underexplored
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Research Gap
Limited empirical evidence directly linking Block Chain adoption to borrower trust and repayment behavior. Lack of comparative studies across diverse socio-economic contexts on Block Chain -enabled microfinance effectiveness. Insufficient exploration of how Block Chain reshapes governance and accountability in microfinance institutions. Borrower perceptions of digital identity, privacy, and trust in Block Chain-based KYC systems remain underexplored and finally Scalability challenges such as digital literacy, regulatory uncertainty, and infrastructure gaps—are discussed conceptually but rarely tested empirically.
Objectives of the study
Hypotheses Testing
Tab: Demographic Profile of Respondents
|
Variable |
Category |
Frequency (n) |
Percentage (%) |
|
Gender |
Male |
68 |
56.2 |
|
|
Female |
53 |
43.8 |
|
Age Group |
18–25 years |
22 |
18.2 |
|
|
26–35 years |
41 |
33.9 |
|
|
36–45 years |
35 |
28.9 |
|
|
46+ years |
23 |
19.0 |
|
Education Level |
Primary |
19 |
15.7 |
|
|
Secondary |
37 |
30.6 |
|
|
Graduate |
46 |
38.0 |
|
|
Postgraduate |
19 |
15.7 |
|
Occupation |
Self-employed |
44 |
36.4 |
|
|
Salaried |
32 |
26.4 |
|
|
Daily wage |
28 |
23.1 |
|
|
Others |
17 |
14.1 |
|
Years with MFI |
|
21 |
17.4 |
|
|
1–3 years |
49 |
40.5 |
|
|
4–6 years |
33 |
27.3 |
|
|
7 years and above |
18 |
14.8 |
Interpretation
Inferential statistics
Objective -1
Hypothesis-1
H₁: Block chain- based transparency significantly enhances borrower trust.
|
Blockchain Transparency |
High Trust |
Medium Trust |
Low Trust |
Row Total |
|
High |
45 |
12 |
3 |
60 |
|
Moderate |
15 |
18 |
7 |
40 |
|
Low |
5 |
5 |
11 |
21 |
|
Column Total |
65 |
35 |
21 |
121 |
Expected frequencies were calculated using the formula Where N = 121.
|
Blockchain Transparency |
High Trust (E) |
Medium Trust (E) |
Low Trust (E) |
|
High |
32 |
17 |
10 |
|
Moderate |
21 |
12 |
7 |
|
Low |
11 |
6 |
4 |
Interpretation: Expected frequencies indicate the distribution that would occur if no association exists between Blockchain Transparency and Borrower Trust.
|
Blockchain Transparency |
High Trust |
Medium Trust |
Low Trust |
Row Contribution |
|
High |
5 |
2 |
5 |
12 |
|
Moderate |
2 |
4 |
0 |
6 |
|
Low |
3 |
0 |
15 |
18 |
|
Column/Grand Total |
10 |
5 |
20 |
χ² = 36 |
Tab: Summary of Chi Square Test
|
Chi-Square Value (χ²) |
36 |
The computed Chi-Square statistic obtained by comparing the observed and expected frequencies. Higher χ² value indicates a greater deviation from the assumption of independence. |
|
Degrees of Freedom (df) |
4 |
The calculated using the formula (r − 1)(c − 1) here it is 3×3 table, df = (3 − 1)(3 − 1) = 4. This determines the critical value for evaluating statistical significance. |
|
Critical Chi-Square Value at 0.05 |
9.488 |
Based on χ² distribution tables for df = 4 at a 5% significance level, the critical value is 9.488. If the calculated χ² exceeds this value, the null hypothesis should be rejected. |
Objective -2
Hypothesis-1
H₁: Improved borrower trust leads to better loan repayment behavior.
Regression and Mediation is adopted to test the hypothesis
|
X — Blockchain transparency (predictor) |
Treated as continuous 1 = Low, 2 = Moderate, 3 = High).
|
|
M — Borrower trust (mediator). |
Treated as continuous (1 = Low, 2 = Medium, 3 = High).
|
|
Y — Repayment behavior (outcome). |
Binary: 1 = On-time repayment, 0 = Irregular repayment.
|
|
N
|
121 respondents. |
Figure:1
Model 1 — Total effect (X → Y)
Tab-Logistic Regression of Repayment on Block Chain Transparency
|
Predictor (Model 1) |
Coef (b) |
SE |
z (Wald) |
p-value |
Odds Ratio (eᵇ) |
|
Intercept |
-0.40 |
0.20 |
-2.00 |
0.045 |
— |
|
Block chain Transparency (X) |
0.80 |
0.25 |
3.20 |
0.0014 |
2.23 |
Interpretation: The total effect is positive and significant. A one-unit increase in perceived Blockchain transparency multiplies the odds of on-time repayment by ≈ 2.23 (p ≈ 0.001), showing that transparency alone predicts better repayment behavior.
Tab-Linear regression of Borrower Trust on Block Chain Transparency
|
Predictor (Model 2) |
Coef (a) |
SE |
t |
p-value |
R² |
|
Intercept |
0.50 |
0.11 |
4.55 |
< 0.001 |
|
|
Blockchain transparency (X) |
0.65 |
0.12 |
5.42 |
< 0.001 |
R² = 0.20 |
Interpretation: Block chain transparency strongly and significantly predicts borrower trust. Each one-unit increase in transparency increases trust by 0.65 units on the trust scale (p < 0.001). The model explains about 20% of variance in trust.
Tab -Logistic Regression Of Repayment On Blockchain Transparency and Borrower Trust
|
Predictor (Model 3) |
Coef (b or c′) |
SE |
z (Wald) |
p-value |
Odds Ratio (eᵇ) |
|
Intercept |
-1.10 |
0.30 |
-3.67 |
< 0.001 |
— |
|
Borrower trust (M) — path b |
1.20 |
0.30 |
4.00 |
< 0.001 |
3.32 |
|
Blockchain transparency (X) — direct c′ |
0.20 |
0.28 |
0.71 |
0.48 |
1.22 |
Interpretation:
|
Component |
Estimate |
Standard Error (SE) |
Calculation |
Result |
|
Path a (X → M) |
0.65 |
0.12 |
— |
— |
|
Path b (M → Y) |
1.20 |
0.30 |
— |
— |
|
Indirect Effect (a × b) |
0.78 |
— |
0.65 × 1.20 |
0.78 |
|
Sobel SE (Indirect Effect) |
— |
0.2424 |
√(b² × SEₐ² + a² × SE_b²) |
0.2424 |
|
Sobel z-value |
— |
— |
0.78 ÷ 0.2424 |
3.218 |
|
p-value |
— |
— |
— |
0.0013 |
|
Inference |
— |
— |
— |
Significant Mediation |
Interpretation
The mediation analysis reveals that the indirect effect of Blockchain transparency on loan repayment behavior, operating through borrower trust, is statistically significant (z = 3.218, p = 0.0013). This finding indicates that borrower trust serves as a complete mediator in this relationship, suggesting that the positive impact of Blockchain transparency on repayment performance occurs predominantly through its ability to enhance trust among borrowers. The mediation analysis revealed that the total effect of Blockchain transparency on loan repayment behavior was statistically significant (c = 0.80), indicating that higher levels of transparency were initially associated with an increased likelihood of on-time repayment. However, when borrower trust was introduced into the model, the direct effect of Blockchain transparency became small and statistically non-significant (c′ = 0.20), while the indirect effect through trust remained significant (a × b = 0.78). This pattern—characterized by a significant indirect pathway coupled with a non-significant direct pathway—provides strong evidence of full mediation.
Tab-Summary of Key co-efficients
|
Path |
Estimate |
SE |
Test statistic |
p-value |
|
|
a: X → M |
0.65 |
0.12 |
t = 5.42 |
< 0.001 |
X increases trust |
|
b: M → Y (controlling X) |
1.20 |
0.30 |
z = 4.00 |
< 0.001 |
Trust increases odds of on-time repayment |
|
c: X → Y (total) |
0.80 |
0.25 |
z = 3.20 |
0.0014 |
X increases odds of on-time repayment |
|
c′: X → Y (direct, controlling M) |
0.20 |
0.28 |
z = 0.71 |
0.48 |
Not significant |
|
Indirect (a×b) |
0.78 |
0.242 |
z = 3.22 |
0.0013 |
Significant mediation |
CONCLUSIONS:
Descriptive statistics conclusions
Inferential statistics conclusions
Implications to MFI’s
MFIs can now shift from traditional monitoring-heavy loan models to trust-enabled digital governance systems, MFIs adopting Blockchain can expect: Lower delinquency (PAR levels) Higher on-time repayment Improved loan recovery without coercive practices, enhanced Governance, Accountability & Auditability, strengthen Transparency Features in Blockchain Platforms and increase Borrower Education & Awareness Use Trust-Building Touchpoints Throughout the Loan Cycle