The current global economy is based on the smooth international flow of capital, technology, goods, and services. However, geopolitical disturbances—complex political situations and wars that go outside country boundaries and impact global relationships and financial stability—often disturb this complex network of trade. Government officials, analysts, and executives in business who want to negotiate the difficulties and uncertainties of the modern global environment have to understand how geopolitical revolutions and international trade intertwine.

The term "geopolitical disturbances" refers to a wide variety of events, such as conflict over trade, international disagreements, boundary disputes, conflict between nations, penalties, and instability in politics. As finding in the previous studies, resource control, intellectual disagreements, strategic power dynamics, or the accomplishment of national goals frequently constitute the causes of these instances. These interruptions are the causes of potential challenges to upset established raise transaction costs, paths of trade, alter supply chains, and create uncertainty that hinders investment and economic cooperation.

According to Raghuwanshi (2024), economic sanctions and trade restrictions implemented during the period of the Cold War forced the affected countries to seek out supply chains options, markets, and decreased trade between the industrialized nations. Meanwhile, according to (Singh et al., 2024) explained that disputes over trade between big nations like the US and China demonstrate how geopolitical competition could appear as export restrictions, taxes, and rules and regulations, which can lead to instability for consumers and companies worldwide.

International trade has engaged in multinational trade, which is particularly vulnerable to micro-level changes in rules and regulations, shifting expenditures, and disturbances in supplier relationships. Although, geopolitical changes pose a threat to international trade because they have the potential to impact both the macro and micro economic settings. FDI (Foreign Direct Investment), Macroeconomic Growth Trajectories (MGT), and Trade Balances (TB) related problems may make it difficult for multilateral trade organizations which are operated by World Trade Organization (WTO). They may causes to exacerbate national inequality and erode the global market value of commodities.

Some additional effects on businesses around the world could come from global issues over regions rich in resources, export restrictions, or barriers to vital waterways, or on essential raw commodities. It underlined that a dispersion of manufacturing procedures across the world as a result of globalization in manufacturing has led to complex supply chains that are vulnerable to instability in politics.

As a research study on previous relevant studies, it is found that to protect their control technology transfers, own economic sectors, and to protect the supply chain from alleged political dangers, and nations are enacting an increasing number of laws. It can increase the financial national security and protectionism, which is another indication of the political climate transformation that has had an important influence on international business and trade. This outreaching up to the challenges of previous liberal trade orientation, promoted that the market accessibility and transnational communication, presenting serious concerns about the likely future of global trading management and the potential for new economic disintegration.

According to the research study, purpose of exploring the complex relationship between changes in international trade and geopolitics, this study looks at important data from empirical studies. Important concerns like how various geopolitical disturbances impact patterns of trade and economic results are among the issues it intends to address. In order to mitigate the risks associated with international instability, which approaches do organizations and governments use? How have international economic relations and world trade governance developed as a result of geopolitical tensions? By addressing these issues, an in-depth awareness of the possibilities as well as challenges that geopolitical changes provide to global trade in the twenty-first century will be possible.

The consequences of international tensions and geopolitical rivalry extend outside traditional security issues to include economic and social aspects as the world economy grows more interconnected. To promote adaptability, security, and equitable development in a climate of uncertainty, policy choices and effective company behaviour must be based on an in-depth examination of the dynamics of geopolitical events and the impact they have on international trade.

1.2 Objectives

1. Economic sanctions implemented as a foreign policy instrument can limit particular countries' access to markets.
2. To force companies to look for other trading partners or rearrange supply chains—often at greater costs.

2.1 Overview of Geopolitical Disturbance

According to Hodulo et. al (2024), two main processes of transmission have been identified. The real-world economic channel affects commodity prices, distribution networks, and trade, and 2) the monetary channel, where higher risk aversion and uncertainty lead to investment volatility and asset reorganizations. To justify the real-world economics channel, Mansoor et al. (2024) highlighted important factors that contribute to a positive consumer experience in the realm of possibility, like trial-ability and social presence, which increase interest and purchase intent. On the other hand, for the secondary channel “the monetary channel”, Li et al (2021) suggested that monetary policy is gradually influencing the wealth of households through the equity and mortgage markets, as seen by the asset price channel's increasing role. Based on these findings, China ought to encourage reforms in finance and keep an open mind on asset price movements in order to carry out more efficient monetary policies.

According to Gong and Xu (2022), the livestock and agricultural sectors experience disturbances that can be transmitted by fuel and metallic substances, while the interconnection and overflow patterns of goods marketplaces are drastically altered by risks associated with geopolitics. Bednarski et al. (2025) highlighted that trade wars and sanctions, among other geopolitical events, make supply chains vulnerable. Recent innovations like blockchain technology, artificial intelligence, backshoring, and regionalisation tend to constitute significant limiting strategies. The topic needs additional research on adaptive risk administration and adaptability.

According to Dogan et al. (2021), the implications of geopolitical instability and uncertain economic policy have been thoroughly examined; the implications of rents for natural resources have received less attention. Uncertainty about economic policies has a mixed effect, raising rents at low levels and reducing them at high levels. The findings mentioned above underscore the necessity of strategies that tackle the many different impacts of instability and risk on economies that depend upon natural assets. NguyenHuu and Orsal (2024), emphasized that the important effect of international issues on the economy in countries that are developing, especially when instability is at its highest. In advanced countries, equity markets are more vulnerable to international disputes that have less of an effect on the financial industry and mainly affect the foreign currency, banking, and debt markets. 

2.2 Overview of International Trade in India

Lohani (2024) discussed gravity model outcomes; those are facilitated by international trade of India: trade relationships are influenced by common borders or languages, economic scale, and distance. The similarities promote trade while separation hampers it. Strengthening negotiations on trade to reduce challenges and enhance the integration of regions is supported by evidence. According to Luo (2024), an evolution out of international cooperation and toward patriotic interventionist approaches, motivated by protectionist policies, a mutually exclusive mindset, and geopolitical divisions. Since national security and sovereign concerns progressively influence the governance of the global economy and commercial conversations, researchers highlight that this transformation brings into question the opening and cooperation-based predictions of global trade.

Delev (2025) suggested that corporation–based global trade to emphasize stabilising trade arrangements or efforts as legal mechanisms which promote economic and safety objectives, preserve access to markets, and promote rule-setting and regulatory collaboration in the governance of the global economy. In their focus on the view of governance of the global economy, Liadze et al. (2023) suggested the consequences of the wars in the region's southeast are highlighted by disruptions in the availability of oil, rising energy costs, and increased global inflation. Regionally, the economy is significantly slowed, development is discouraged, and financial markets have been undermined by conflicts. Because of trade disruptions, energy reliance, and increased geopolitical unpredictability, economies around the globe are subject to indirect shocks that increase economic and recessionary pressures.

(Pellegrino et al., 2023; Raghuwanshi, 2024) highlighted economic shocks caused by uncertainty during the recent Great Downturn produced major production losses, which contributed to over 60% of the get from 2008 to 2014, according to research using nonlinear proxy-VAR and DSGE models. The significance of the Central Reserve's systematic monetary policy to mitigate these adverse effects has been repeatedly stressed in the research. Wei and Han (2021) suggested reducing the financial markets' ability to receive monetary policy. Standard and unconventional measures had little impact on stocks, bonds, exchange rates, and derivatives markets, based on event-study evaluations carried out in 37 different nations. Findings show that after the outbreak, stronger monetary or fiscal measures are necessary.

According to (Gupta & Loya, 2025; Aladwan et al, 2024), the significance of affecting the economy's performance. A study indicates that money supply and real gross domestic product have a beneficial relationship, particularly in recent research from Jordan. Outcomes frequently indicate the efficacy of monetary policy in encouraging growth and stabilising economies through techniques such as Granger causality, VECM, and FMOLS. Kurniawan et al. (2023) highlighted its relevance to economic variables, especially following the financial crisis of 2008. According to the inferences of research study is mentioning ARDL methods. As reference of Indonesia, where as using the ARDL methods, it shows that inflation has a positive impact on property values, whereas GDP has a negative one. A significance of monetary policy for maintaining price stability is shown by the differences in the short-term and long-term effects of local and international interest rates.

2.3 Influence of Geopolitical Disturbance on International Trade in India

According to Batra (2020) and Mehta & Kumar (2021), as a result of escalating geopolitical tensions, such as tariff disputes between foreign countries, border clashes, and shifting alliances, India has adjusted its tariff systems to safeguard domestic sectors and lessen external vulnerabilities. Geopolitical vulnerability has had a significant impact on India's international trade, especially by causing changes to the international supply chain dynamics and tariff regimes.

According to Gupta (2022) the conflicts like as Russia-Ukraine and post-pandemic disruptions have raised the volatility of commodity prices, prompting India to modify import tariffs on crude oil, fertilizers, and other necessities. Due to required necessity, (Amal & Sabyasachi, 2025) underlined that an attempt to strike a balance between global competitiveness and protectionism may be seen in the implementation of "Atmanirbhar Bharat" policies and selective tariff increases. As mentioned in WTO report (2023), it points out that India frequently uses tariff adjustments to assist both strategic trade diversification and economic security. Although, studies indicated that these policies have conflicting effects and higher tariffs to protect domestic producers, that shows the critical effect for foreign investment inflows and risk decreasing export competitiveness (Gupta et. al., 2025).

2.4 Hypotheses

• HA1: Geopolitical disturbances are significantly affected international trade of India.
• HA2: A force for companies to look for other trading partners must require, due to geopolitical disturbance in India’s foreign trade.

3.1 Research Model:

Source: Author’s own model

3.2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

 The research study uses Google Forms, an effective and user-friendly web application, for a research survey method of data gathering. Prepared questionnaire contains open-ended and closed-ended questions to gather information pertinent to the objectives of the study. The Google Form's link is sent via email and social media to reach a large number of replies. This strategy ensures cost-effectiveness, expanded reach, and real-time data recording. The responses are automatically compiled for examination by Google Sheets. Ethical norms, including informed consent and confidentiality, are respected to ensure the accuracy of the data.

3.3 Data Collection

Google Forms was used to create an organized online survey that gathered data. To get thorough insights, through the use of questionnaire forms, 123 respondents posted their responses regarding the relevant information, which is very important to use the Likert scale measurement. Purposive sampling was used to choose participants, and answers were automatically recorded for analysis. Confidentiality and voluntary involvement were rigorously upheld as ethical principles.

3.4 Ethical Consideration

Prior to data collection, all participants' informed consent was obtained as part of ethical concerns. Participation was completely voluntary, and respondents were guaranteed anonymity and secrecy. Transparency and integrity were ensured by using the data only for scholarly reasons. In accordance with ethical research guidelines and privacy rules, no personal identifiers were gathered.

3.5 Research Tools: SPSS Software, Google Form, web chat, etc., are used as research tools to collect data.

3.6 Data Analysis

After receiving 123 valid responses, participants (Professors, International Students and other individuals) played an important role in analysing the further study by using the research survey method to know about the people’s intentions regarding the geopolitical disturbances which is happening across the world.

3.6.1 Frequency and Reliability

Table 1: Frequency validation of samples

Table 2: Reliability Test

The Cronbach’s alpha value is 0.747, which indicates that all samples are reliable because the Cronbach’s Alpha value is greater than 0.50.

Table 3: Statistics summary of the item

3.6.2      Variable Test

Table 4: KMO (Variable) Test

As getting the significant value (p < 0.05), this shows that all variables, those are including in the research study are mutually good. There is the value of KMO (Laiser-Meyer-Olkin) test is greater than 0.50, this demonstrates the applicability of the variables for the further study. 

1.6.2      Interclass Coefficient Test

Table 5: Intraclass Correlation Coefficient Test

By applying the intraclass correlation coefficient test, it is interpreted that, as mentioned, the lower and upper bound limits indicate that all corresponding variables are correlated, because the p-value is 0.00 (< 0.05). 

3.6.4 Regression Test

• There are three variables which are noted as:
• C1: Noted as International Trade of India
• C2: Noted as Geopolitical Disturbance
• C3: Noted as International Trade Instability
• HA1: Geopolitical disturbances are significantly affected international trade of India.

Table 6: Variables

Table 7: Model Summary

Table 8: ANOVA Test

Table 9: Coefficient Test

There is significant evidence to justify the impact of foreign policy instruments on India’s foreign trade due to geopolitical disturbance, where the p-value is less than 0.05. According to the Model Summary, ANOVA, and Coefficient p-value is 0.00, which shows the significance of the hypothesis by applying the F-test.

HA2: A force for companies to look for other trading partners must require, due to geopolitical disturbance in India’s foreign trade.

Table 10: Variables

Table 11: Model Summary

Table 12: ANOVA Test

Table 13: Coefficient Test

companies to look for other trading partners or rearrange supply chains—often at greater costs due to geopolitical disturbance in India’s foreign trade, as the p-value of the relevant tests is less than 0.05. According to the Model Summary, ANOVA, and the Coefficient p-value is 0.00, which shows the significance of the hypothesis by applying the F-test.

The analysis shows that through tariff realignments and policy changes, geopolitical upheavals have a major impact on India's overseas commerce. Findings show that India implemented protective tariff measures to stabilize local markets and provide supply security during international crises like the Russia-Ukraine war and trade disputes between the United States and China. Although these measures helped local businesses, they also increased import costs and created temporary trade imbalances. India has been successful in boosting self-reliance through the appropriate use of tariffs, but export competitiveness may be hampered. Hence, maintaining long-term trade growth still requires striking a balance between protectionism and global integration

As the conclusion of the research study, IFTP (India's Foreign Trade Policies) are significantly shaped by geopolitical big changes, especially when it comes to tariff changes intended to promote economic stability and strategic independence. India has adopted a practical strategy that combines protectionism and selective liberalization in response to worldwide uncertainty (Mekala, 2024). Tariff increases might limit export prospects and foreign investments even though they strengthen domestic sectors and lessen reliance on erratic markets, as highlighted by Handley et al. (2025).

A balanced tariff policy that complies with both domestic and international trade standards is therefore essential. Strengthening regional partnerships and commercial diversification would further increase India's resilience in an increasingly unstable geopolitical environment (Singh & Raj, 2025).

Future Scope

As to prefer future studies on “Geopolitical Disturbances” regarding to the “International Trade” looking to geopolitical changes, which may a cause of affect the trade diversification, tariff modifications, and India's integration into global value chains (Singh et al., 2024). This comparative study between developing countries may provide knowledge to gain the successful outcome of India's tariff enforcement initiatives (Singh et al., 2025). However, econometric models may be used to determine the impact of tariff adjustments on industry productivity, foreign direct investment, and export competitiveness as finding secondary data on relevant measurement.

As in future scope, studies ought to evaluate how regional trade agreements, digital trade, and supply chain resilience might lower risks associated with geopolitics. Through the help of these researches, policymakers could develop more adaptable and economically viable trade frameworks for India's economic growth (Verma et. al., 2024).

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